5/4/2025 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Randwick, The Championships Day 1
Day One of The Championships at Randwick takes place on Saturday, with a stacked ten race card. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race 1. (12:25) Kindergarten Stakes 1100m
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I was taken by the debut win of 6 Beskar (Bet Now: $6.00) at Geelong and he looked a Blue Diamond horse but was spelled. He has come back, jumped out well in Victoria before a trial here last week when on speed, clicked up by J Mac and away he went to win comfortably and was strong late. He looks a good mover and stable is going well in Sydney.
Danger
3 Aleppo Pine (Bet Now: $7.00) is a few weeks between runs for James Cummings since contesting the Todman where he didn’t really get the rub of the green and should have been in the finish I thought behind Tentyris. Moved well in a tick over trial last week at Hawkesbury and appears suited at this level.
Long Shot
5 Stormland (Bet Now: $21.00) is a nice juvenile on the up for Ciaron Maher. He debuted on the Kenso over 1100m when near the speed throughout and while some were raw and new to the caper, he finished best and was professional. Looks a good mover so keen to see how he goes.
Race 2. (13:00) Adrian Knox Stakes 2000m
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I am keen on 11 Miss Alexis (Bet Now: $16.00). She had no right to win the maiden at Sandown last time given they walked in front and she had to run near sub 33 to wear them down and win. Being out of Jameka, she will eat up 2000m and has upside/improvement.
Danger
2 Inevitable Truth (Bet Now: $11.00) should love the rise to 2000m after racing in the Kembla Grange Classic. She got held up at times before getting clear and drove hard late, just missing out on the win when a narrow second to Verona Rose. 2000m is fine, she has class and has that sense of timing.
Long Shot
5 You Wahng (Bet Now: $11.00) looks a filly heading in the right direction for Kris Lees. Strong win over 1400m at Scone two back before going to the Kembla Grange Classic where she got too far out of her ground but was good late without threatening. Bred to appreciate 2000m and overall, this isn’t a deep contest.
Race 3. (13:35) Chairman’s Qlty 2600m
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7 Waltham (Bet Now: $9.00) is the one for me. He went to the Gold Coast for a kill and he got it two weeks back, giving them a start and a beating in an impressive effort. He has promised to be a good stayer for some time and off a win, he’ll be strong late, he gets B Shinn…takes beating.
Danger
10 Valiant King (Bet Now: $23.00) is a horse I am not dropping off. He ran behind Alalcance in the Manion and was forced to make his run out wide on a day where that was impossible so forgive and forget. Convinced he is racing well and a win here wouldn’t shock at all towards the Sydney Cup.
Long Shot
15 Mr Waterville (Bet Now: $71.00) does seem a very one paced type so 2600m here looks ideal. He comes through the Manion from two weeks ago. He got back in the run and while he was never a winning threat, he kept finding the line and was pretty good in defeat behind impressive winner Alalcance. Knocking on the door and strikes a winnable race.
Race 4. (14:10) Carbine Club Stakes 1600m
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1 Evaporate (Bet Now: $3.90) is a few weeks between runs for Team Hayes since racing in The Kiwi at Ellerslie where he was given a sore back by Mick Dee and you can make a case that he should have won instead of a second to Damask Rose. Loved the way he went in a recent trial win here and should take beating.
Danger
2 Swiftfalcon (Bet Now: $1.90) is the obvious, but this isn’t a great set up to my eye on the map hence why he’s second pick. He tried his guts out in the Rosehill Guineas, and to an extent the Randwick Guineas, and each tome he has had his chance. He can win, clearly, he’s a class animal…but not taking the shorts.
Long Shot
8 Brigidine Gal (Bet Now: $12.00) comes back to her own age after racing in the Epona on Slipper Day. Given the pattern of the day, she was quite good in defeat I thought when a closing third to Mare Of Mt Buller. Hard fit, 1600m, she appeals as a key chance.
Race 5. (14:45) Country Championships Final 1400m
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3 Tribeca Star (Bet Now: $10.00) is a horse I have been hot on for this race for a couple of months so I am not dropping off him. He got his way here via a dominant, and arrogant win, in the Lismore Qualifier. He then went to the Gold Coast to race, but he went there for what turned out to be a trial. It was such an ugly watch. But, he’s flying, he’ll eat up 1400m, handles all conditions, versatility re racing pattern…hard to beat.
Danger
1 Gallant Star (Bet Now: $3.20) is the class of the field and class is going to carry him a long way. He resumed in a Coonamble Qualifier where the market said he was a good thing and he duly saluted, leading throughout and he got better as the race went on. He only has upside/improvement to come and has to be given respect.
Long Shot
11 Don Stefano (Bet Now: $151.00) is better suited over further but I think he will be one of the strongest late. He ran second in the Orange Qualifier, getting back off the speed but he worked home with real purpose late, clocking good late splits in defeat. He’ll be spotting them a start but will be strong and is a must for exotics.
Race 6. (15:20) Inglis Sires’ 1400m
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5 State Visit (Bet Now: $11.00) looks a good prospect for Ciaron Maher. He ran three weeks ago in the Pago Pago and was a real eye catcher in defeat I thought from the back behind impressive winner Skyhook. He’s racing as if he’ll eat up 1400m and if he can settle closer, he’ll take beating.
Danger
3 Vinrock (Bet Now: $4.60) looks a really good colt for Matt Laurie and keen to see how he goes. He comes through the VRC Sires when leading throughout and he gave nothing else a look in, winning quite impressively from the front. Tick over trial here last week was very good and he is one of a few that brings different form, and looks very good.
Long Shot
6 Buffalo (Bet Now: $18.00) is giving off every indication of eating up 1400m. He has raced over 1200m his past two, the latest being a Newcastle maiden win where he looked a good thing on paper and duly saluted to win and win well. He has looked a Sires horse for some time so keen to see how he goes.
Race 7. (15:55) T J Smith Stakes 1200m
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I am stunned that 6 Sunshine In Paris (Bet Now: $9.00) was near double figures earlier in the week. She is a star mare and one of the best sprinters in the business, as seen in the Champions Sprint. She resumed in the Canterbury Stakes where she was held up at times but against the pattern but she found the line with real purpose behind Royal Patronage. Tick over trial, work between races, each time she has stepped out, she has looked fabulous. She’ll eat up the 1200m and launch late, hopefully over the top.
Danger
7 Joliestar (Bet Now: $4.00) comes here with fresh legs for Chris Waller after an arrogant Newmarket win where she gave them a start and a beating in an electric performance. I will say, it wasn’t a deep Newmarket but it was first look at the straight course and she handled it comfortably. Tick over trial was strong and she does seem to fly on the fresh side.
Long Shot
1 Overpass (Bet Now: $6.50) is a fascinating runner. He has eyes on The Quokka but can fly fresh and has the right racing pattern. He resumes, having not raced since the Winterbottom when on speed throughout and gave nothing else a look in to win and win well. Trial work has been excellent, he’ll press forward and only run well.
Race 8. (16:35) Doncaster Mile 1600m
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The more I look at recent replays of key runners here, the more I warm to 3 Tom Kitten (Bet Now: $7.50). All Star Mile winner that wasn’t there to play in the George Ryder I thought but I thought he closed off with real purpose behind Gringotts. For mine, he just needs to get a soft trip in transit, be within range, and can launch over the top.
Danger
20 Linebacker (Bet Now: $6.50) has to be given serious respect off his Randwick Guineas win. Credit to him, he was there to be beaten, but he found under pressure and was actually strongest on the line in winning. He tumbles down to 49kg, he has that sense of timing, fresh legs and is using an identical set up to Celestial Legend from last year.
Long Shot
13 Kovalica (Bet Now: $26.00) does run very well at the Randwick mile and I thought his return in the George Ryder was full of merit. He got back off the moderate speed, lacked change up speed, but he was solid to and through the line in defeat behind Gringotts. He’ll eat up a hard 1600m here and his best is clearly good enough.
Race 9. (17:15) Atc Australian Derby 2400m
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18 Aeliana (Bet Now: $4.00) will eat up 2400m IMO. She ran in the Rosehill Guineas and I don’t think you have to be a genius to say she wins if she got clear air. Gee it was an ugly watch, getting out very late and just missing out on picking up Broadsiding. Weight pull being a filly, 2400m is fine, not a deep race…keen.
Danger
2 Goldrush Guru (Bet Now: $11.00) is a big, big improver. I was one that wanted Jamie to ride him like the best horse in the race in the Guineas but it didn’t work as he got quite keen in the run and tired late. I think with a more patient steer here, he has the runs on the board to be given another look.
Long Shot
10 Imperialist (Bet Now: $91.00) seems a massive price for mine. Watching the replay of the Alister Clark, I note how late Jye was at pushing the button and how strong the horse was to/through the line. He is the one with that sense of timing and for mine, will eat up 2400m. A win wouldn’t shock at all and I am definitely having something each way on.
Race 10. (17:50) P J Bell Stakes 1200m
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10 Island Dec (Bet Now: $23.00) looks much better suited at this level vs the Surround at Group l level when outclassed on paper and ran accordingly behind Lady Shenandoah. Much better placed here IMO and her recent trial win at Kembla last week…they don’t trial much better. She’ll run a beauty.
Danger
2 Zeitung (Bet Now: $6.00) should appreciate a rise to 1200m after resuming in the Fireball a few weeks back when off speed and spotted those in front a decent head start but I liked the way she closed off late in the piece behind Enriched. Fitter and up in trip, she’ll run a positive race.
Long Shot
11 Useapin (Bet Now: $41.00) looks a nice filly for Chris Waller on the improver. She was a strong winner at Gosford fresh before going to the Kenso when off speed but chased with purpose in a good effort in defeat. 1200m is fine, strong late…knockout hope.
BEST BET: Race Four Number 1 Evaporate
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 11 Miss Alexis
LONG SHOT: Race Ten Number 10 Island Dec
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 1, 6, 7, 8
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 13, 20
Leg Three: 2, 8, 10, 18
Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 10, 11
$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful
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