Handicapping Grade 1 Races on Super Saturday
In years past, this coming Saturday—five weeks out from the Breeders’ Cup—would have been a “Super Saturday” of Breeders’ Cup prep races highlighted by 10 Grade 1 races at Santa Anita Park and Aqueduct Racetrack.
Changes to race dates and the downgrading of many stakes have reduced the number of Grade 1 races this Saturday to two, but those two—the $300,000 Goodwood (G1) at Santa Anita and the $500,000 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) at Aqueduct—are excellent races containing past Breeders’ Cup champions. It’s safe to say this Saturday is super after all.
Let’s take a look at both Grade 1 races:
Goodwood (G1)
Seven horses will race 1 1/8 miles over the Santa Anita main track in the Goodwood. The morning-line favorite is #4 First Mission (8-5), a Midwest raider for high-percentage trainer Brad Cox.
Every now and then, First Mission steps up and runs a big race. During the spring, he won the Oaklawn H. (G2) by two lengths over Banishing and Skippylongstocking , who have respectively gone on to win the Charles Town Classic (G2) and Hollywood Gold Cup (G2).
But First Mission has struggled at the Grade 1 level, failing to finish better than third in four tries. Also, he exits a subpar effort in the Philip H. Iselin (G3), in which he ran second by three-quarters of a length while favored at 1-5. I’ve long been a fan of First Mission and expect him to crack the trifecta in the Goodwood, but for win purposes, I’m siding with #7 Full Serrano (2-1).
Formerly based in Argentina, Full Serrano is a half-length away from being undefeated in four U.S. starts. His lone miss came when finishing second in the 2024 Pacific Classic (G1).
Full Serrano followed up the Pacific Classic with a breakthrough triumph in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1). After pressing a strong pace in second place, he took over to score by 1 1/2 lengths over the multiple Grade 1-placed Post Time and H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1) winner Domestic Product .
Unfortunately, Full Serrano went to the sidelines after the Breeders’ Cup and didn’t race again for 10 months. But he picked up where he left off in one-mile $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Del Mar last month. Showing no signs of rust, he set a quick pace on his way to dominating by 7 1/4 lengths.
With this prep run under his belt, I anticipate Full Serrano will move forward in the Goodwood to snatch another Grade 1 win. Even at the age of six, I believe Full Serrano still has upside, and I’m excited to see what he can accomplish this fall.
For the trifecta, consider using #2 Ultimate Gamble (8-1) at a bit of a price. This improving five-year-old exits a third-place finish in a deep renewal of the Pacific Classic (G1), losing only to 2023 champion two-year-old male Fierceness and 2025 Preakness (G1) winner Journalism . Those are two of the best dirt route runners in the country, so Ultimate Gamble should find the competition at least a little easier in the Goodwood.
Entries: Goodwood S. (G1)
Santa Anita Park, Saturday, September 27, 2025, Race 9
- Grade I
- 1 1/8m
- Dirt
- $300,000
- 3 yo’s & up
- 5:08 PM (local)
Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1)
I’m not going to overthink the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic. The 1 1/2-mile grass contest looks ripe for conquest by 2022 and 2024 Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) winner #3 Rebel’s Romance (1-1).
Some bettors might hesitate to back Rebel’s Romance based on memories of his dull fourth-place finish as the favorite in the 2023 Joe Hirsch. But 2023 was a decidedly subpar season for Rebel’s Romance, and I won’t hold that defeat against him.
Rebel’s Romance bounced back to his best in 2024, traveling around the globe to win the Dubai Sheema Classic (G1), Champions and Chater Cup (G1), and Preis von Europa (G1) before hanging on to win the Breeders’ Cup Turf by a neck. He’s been similarly strong this year, winning the H.H. The Amir Trophy (G3), Yorkshire Cup (G2), Hardwicke (G2), and Grosser Preis von Berlin (G1).
Rebel’s Romance is a true 1 1/2-mile specialist, and over the years he’s won at 13 different racecourses in six different countries. I don’t expect Rebel’s Romance to have much difficulty adding a 14th racecourse (Aqueduct) to his tally while facing a small field in the Joe Hirsch.
The minor awards are tougher to sort out, and the outcome might depend on the course condition this Saturday. If we get firm turf, Rebel’s Romance’s rapidly improving stablemate #1 El Cordobes (3-1) is a logical choice to round out the exacta. After winning the Princess of Wales’s (G2) in England, he shipped to the United States and launched a sharp rally to win last month’s 1 1/2-mile Sword Dancer (G1) over #4 Rebel Red (8-1) and #5 Far Bridge (4-1).
However, if the turf is anything less than firm, I’m inclined to support Far Bridge. True, he tired in the Sword Dancer, finishing a distant sixth. But he may have raced too close to a strong pace. He won last year’s Joe Hirsch over good turf and has performed strongly in all three of his starts over less-than-firm ground this year, highlighted by wins in the Bowling Green (G2) and Man o’ War (G2). Against this small Joe Hirsch field, Far Bridge should have every chance to work out a favorable trip and land a spot in the top two or three.
Entries: Joe Hirsch Turf Classic S. (G1T)
Belmont at the Big A, Saturday, September 27, 2025, Race 5
- Grade IT
- 1 1/2m
- Turf
- $500,000
- 3 yo’s & up
- 2:37 PM (local)
Now it’s your turn! Who do you like in the Goodwood and Joe Hirsch?
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