January Seeks First Group 1 in Prix Rothschild
Wathnan and Coolmore are doublehanded Aug. 3 in the Prix Rothschild (G1) at Deauville Racecourse, with the Aidan O’Brien pair of January and Exactly among the better fillies.
As with all of the midsummer generational clashes, it is worth examining whether there is a particular bias one way or the other with the Rothschild and, with an eight/five split in favor of the older fillies and mares in the years since Goldikova’s domination of the race, the burden of proof is on the 3-year-olds.
Four of those five winners dating back to the John Gosden-trained Elusive Kate in 2012 had already scored at group 1 level, while all arrived with an official rating of at least 112.
None of the seven 3-year-olds lining up has won at group 1 level and the 114-rated January—third in the Coronation Stakes (G1) and then second in the Falmouth Stakes (G1)—is the only one of them who clears what appears to be the entry requirement in terms of official marks.
Stablemate Exactly does have one piece of juvenile form which entitles her to plenty of respect, namely when a close third in the Prix Marcel Boussac (G1).
“We’ve been happy with January since her run in the Falmouth and we thought this race would suit her,” O’Brien said. “We think the trip and the flatter track here will suit Exactly better. The race at Ascot was a little messy and might not have played to her strengths so we think she’ll leave that run behind her.”
With Ryan Moore in Dusseldorf to ride Garden of Eden , jockey bookings further confuse the Ballydoyle picture. Christophe Soumillon, who guided Exactly into third at Longchamp last October, is on the apparent first-stringer in January, while Wayne Lordan rides Exactly.
Mandanaba ‘s third place in the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches (French One Thousand Guineas, G1) still leaves her with a couple of pounds to find compared to the standard set by those five winning 3-year-olds, and British and Irish bookmakers prefer the claims of another Francis-Henri Graffard-trained runner.
Matilda blew away the colts in the German Two Thousand Guineas (G2) by nine lengths when trained by Yasmin Almenrader and makes her first start since; we might only guess what that form is worth, but Deutscher Galopp’s vastly experienced handicapper Harald Siemen called it a 110 performance.
“Matilda is very straightforward. I don’t know her very well but she’s fit to go,” Graffard said. “She will probably need a step up in trip in the future but she seems to be a nice filly.”
It is hard to avoid the conclusion this might be another year when one of the older fillies successfully concedes the seven pounds in weight for age, and Wathnan Racing fields by far the most credible contenders.
The ground continues to dry out in Deauville and could be genuinely good by race time, although it certainly won’t be as quick as when Crimson Advocate swooped late in the Duke of Cambridge Stakes (G2) and Fallen Angel could only stay on for fourth.
On a fast, flat track, James Doyle has opted for the proven speedster in Crimson Advocate, and the ground should have dried out enough for the Kentucky-bred Nyquist filly. But he is unlikely to be all that confident that he has jumped the right way any more than he was at Ascot, and Fallen Angel might easily be his biggest danger for trainer Karl Burke, who has an excellent record at the meeting.
